Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 111.951401 128.259103 146.658012 169.060710 195.744545 226.687020 265.539807
2026-01-04 93.219541 114.568327 140.826648 175.899408 222.127352 281.843870 366.260206
2026-01-11 81.320708 105.170098 136.428387 181.210461 245.088174 335.102389 475.610486
2026-01-18 72.121251 97.059857 131.427289 183.528860 262.860823 383.214133 588.125697
2026-01-25 64.555965 89.757333 125.957028 183.511358 276.195751 426.215561 702.471274
2026-02-01 57.588368 82.241893 118.890496 179.534899 281.982486 457.431328 803.955599
2026-02-08 51.818833 75.737598 112.373005 175.173099 285.909179 485.563565 906.516605
2026-02-15 47.096677 70.271027 106.729447 171.256359 289.604234 513.471327 1015.794691
2026-02-22 45.785037 69.986532 109.282229 181.535400 320.517749 599.417550 1276.316206
2026-03-01 43.132887 67.223382 107.347628 183.457051 335.741411 656.922059 1491.047098
2026-03-08 40.886269 64.897358 105.866020 185.928125 352.359037 721.002080 1745.968878
2026-03-15 38.468596 62.044683 103.134045 185.585692 362.968396 773.823460 1991.141177
2026-03-22 37.716688 62.097836 105.773535 196.500834 400.762404 903.213646 2528.501795
2026-03-29 36.625323 61.441264 107.026905 204.802073 434.519600 1033.042740 3143.720069
2026-04-05 35.380651 60.378817 107.372232 211.209134 465.158235 1164.310674 3848.925587
2026-04-12 33.842453 58.623588 106.162044 214.004287 487.403495 1278.864082 4569.953937
2026-04-19 32.154509 56.436445 103.857600 213.983859 502.354686 1376.355741 5292.435521
2026-04-26 30.161527 53.500745 99.743207 209.196471 503.514412 1430.228209 5854.701760
2026-05-03 28.303444 50.693918 95.649613 203.949889 502.474184 1476.925268 6423.008703
2026-05-10 26.654441 48.184400 91.965595 199.243025 502.147878 1526.511752 7054.721158
2026-05-17 26.544748 48.765109 94.965067 211.604509 555.344498 1794.573667 9289.960646
2026-05-24 25.632159 47.627655 94.086890 213.918601 578.187098 1954.831469 11036.761453
2026-05-31 24.827673 46.655356 93.487739 216.895741 603.970312 2139.280843 13240.187063